The
truth of the matter is the climate on this planet is changing. It has been changing from the time when it
was formed and it will continue to change until the Sun eventually grows into a
red giant and swallows the planet.
There
are generally two schools of thought on the topic. One says we’re all going to die unless we do
something drastic now and the other says it’s all a hoax. If you are willing to listen to non-technical
politicians and lawyers discuss the topic why not a scientifically trained
engineer who has studied the topic?
The
earth goes through cycles, macro warming and macro cooling cycles. Every twenty
to one hundred thousand years there is an ice age where large portions of the
ice caps melt and travel down. This is
obviously catastrophically destructive.
The best evidence we have is that we are going through a macro warming
phase after having been through a macro cooling phase or mini ice age in the
middle ages.
What is the data we have?
For the last sixty years
worldwide digital and accurate analog thermometers have been keeping track of land
and sea temperatures. Combined with
fifty years of weather and temperature satellites we have an unprecedented
amount of accurate data for a miniscule portion of time. Beyond that we have about two hundred years
of less accurate written temperature readings from ship and cities. We have measurements of tides for the last
hundred years. Finally, we have ice
records which show temperature in the arctic regions for up to one hundred
thousand years. This gives an indication
of temperature in that time but only for that region.
How has the climate changed?
Often
times you will see a very dramatic chart starting from the 1880 and continuing
on to 2010. The graph will clearly show
a steady and precipitous rise in temperature.
See figure 1. Sometimes it is
overlaid with CO’s levels which rise in a more consistent manner. There is no explanation for the period from
1940 to 1980 when no rise in temperature is seen. Sometimes the explanation is the heat is
hidden. If you extend the graph further
back to the early 1800’s you will see the temperature has risen even more. The absolute temperature change is 1 degrees
Celsius. Imagine you were standing outside
one day and the temperature was 70 degrees Fahrenheit. The next day the humidity and sunlight were
exactly the same but the temperature was 72 degree f. Could you tell the difference? The CO’2 has gone up from 300 ppm to 380 ppm
a whopping 26%. PPM stand for parts per
million. Let’s say I had 10,000 balls
which represented the atmosphere.
Approximately 8,000 would be nitrogen, 1900 would be oxygen, 996 would
be assorted gases and 4 would be carbon dioxide. 4! It
used to be 3. Sea levels have risen 4
inches in the last century and currently are experiencing a rise of .13 inches
per year. .13 inches is about what you
cut off on your finger nails when they get too long. I’m just trying to put everything in
perspective. Finally, the size of the
arctic ice in the north is shrinking while the ice in Antarctica is growing
though by not as much as the north is shrinking. We are in a macro warming phase.
Are we the cause?
It is
widely publicized that 98% of climate scientists believe in climate
change. 98% or maybe 100% of climate
journals discuss macro warming in their journal entries because this is the
most easily measurable and provable part of climate change. The cause of global warming has to do with
several factors, sun spot activity, volcanic activity, and atmospheric
makeup. When we speak about global
temperatures we are specifically discussing surface temperature. The core of
the Earth is at a much higher temperature; volcanic activity releases that
temperature. The sun goes through an eleven-year
cycle where sun activity increases and decreases. There might be larger solar cycles and there
are also core ejections which can interfere with modern day electronics. The sun is a factor in global
temperatures. Another factor might be
the measurement itself. If we measure
temperatures in cities and cities become denser that might skew the
measurement. Finally, the cause that you
all hear about carbon dioxide. As
discussed before carbon dioxide has gone up by a large amount percentage wise
but still makes up such a small miniscule part of our atmosphere. Scientific measurement would show how much
carbon dioxide equates to how much heat but that’s now what they do. Scientists or more likely business analysts
show how carbon dioxide levels have risen in much the same way as temperature
levels. In the image below, it looks
pretty dramatic. I would say we are
probably a contributing factor.
Are we in danger?
Here is where science leaves
the road and the politics of fear take over.
We hear from politicians that we are already at 1degrees and if we get
to 2 degrees we are all in danger of mass floods, hurricanes and death and
disease of all kind. Armageddon is just
around the corner but don’t worry we have a solution, just let us tax you for
everything you do and all will be alright.
The catastrophic scenarios are not based out of sci-fi, they are based
off of computer programs that have tried to model the climate for the last
fifty years. Computers can process data
in the way that you tell them to process data.
Think about hurricanes, when they show a hurricane, they show several
possible paths. When dealing with a
specific storm and specific data computes can predict one of four possible scenarios
each off by hundreds of miles and usually one of them is correct. One means, it will hit your city and cause
billions of dollars of damage and another means it veers off harmlessly into
the ocean. Now imagine a computer
program trying to predicts all the weather, storms, temperatures for the entire
world. Even a super computer cannot
accurately predict what will happen, it can only give you possibilities. Savvy and possibly politically motivated
leaders in the scientific community’s cherry pick these scenarios to give us
the most devastating possibility.
I can’t
help but laugh every time there’s a snow storm or hurricane and we are again
told of the devastating effects of climate change. Has there never been a storm
before? Are the storms worse now? I don’t know if anyone can answer that. I do know that storms cause more monetary
damage and less bodily damage then they used to.
I think
the biggest source of danger is the governments State of Fear.
What should we do about it?
The government
uses two tracks to get people in a frenzy over this topic. The first is to discuss the devastating effects
such as storms, flooding, draught, famine and pestilence. The second is then to guilt you into it by
saying we need to think about the next generations coming after us. Here is where I disagree the most with the
climate alarmists. They want to tax your
energy and production use. Either
directly by a carbon tax or indirectly via cap and trade. This is what I call a lose, lose, lose scenario. Consumers lose right away because they have
to pay more for less. Then businesses,
especially those in manufacturing leave the country and the economy loses. Those businesses set up shop in third world
countries who don’t care about the environment and they pollute more than
ever. The environment loses. The only winners are the politicians who get
money and the third world dictators who are paid off. Can you imagine giving money to small
backwards countries to pay them back for the injuries of modernizing the
world? Climate Justice at its finest!
So we do nothing then?
Drill
baby drill right? No! Fossil fuels pollute the atmosphere. Wait, didn’t I just say CO’2 was no big
deal? Burning fossil fuels produce a lot
more than CO’2. They produce nitrox
oxide, sulfur dioxide, lead, and particulate matter. You can’t breathe that stuff in. It’s the environment we should be concerned
with, not the climate. Have you seen the
smog in many cities around the world?
That’s not carbon dioxide, that’s the other bi products of
manufacturing.
In
America and other modern countries, we are already doing a lot. We have strict controls on emissions, we have
mufflers on cars and we have scrubbers on power plants. We should be pushing for more alternative
energy. I’ve heard it said that making a
solar panel releases more carbon than it ever saves. You know what? I don’t care because carbon dioxide is not the
main problem we face. We should be pushing
hard to put solar on every roof and have massive wind farms. This is a win, win, win solution. More energy at cheaper costs is a win for the
consumer. More local jobs installing,
building, repairing and maintaining these installations is a win for the
economy. Less emissions into our
atmosphere is a win for the environment, not to mention our health. Currently, solar and wind account for 1% of
our electricity u se. With a lot of hard
work, this might become 10% in ten years.
It’s not going to be quick and it’s not going to be done by the ‘world.’ It has to be done by us and it has to be in
our own best interest.
I have
another solution. Why not force all cars
in America to eventually be plug in electric hybrids? This means, a battery which powers a motor
and a small gasoline engine to produce electricity for longer trips. Put solar panels on top and you have the most
efficient transportation machine possible.
I’ve heard the detractions. You
need to generate electricity from fossil fuels and then transmit and store
it. You lose about 50 to 60% of the
energy doing that. In a combustion
engine you lose 80%. A combustion engine
needs to be small, light, and in expensive.
Efficiency is not even a tertiary concern. On the other hand, a power plant
that uses oil driven generators care about efficiency and cost. Weight and size are not a concern. Furthermore, an electric car is a platform
that can be fueled any way possible.
Solar on a car doesn’t generate much, possibly 1-2 KWH per day. This might get you the first five miles home
for free after a day at work where your car is sitting in a sunny parking lot
for nine hours.
There are solutions that help the environment, retain our
national sovereignty and increase our economy.